November 12, 2026
SIU professors available to discuss mortgage rates and mortgage rate forecasts
CARBONDALE, Ill. — Two professors from Southern Illinois University Carbondale’s College of Business and Analytics are available to talk about high mortgage interest rates, factors that influence current mortgage interest rates and rate forecasts.
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that the current average mortgage interest rate is 7.24%, on a 30-year fixed rate, and 6.60% on a 15-year fixed rate for the week ending Oct. 29.
Kevin Sylwester, professor of economics and director of the School of Analytics, Finance, and Economics and Scott Gilbert, associate professor and interim associate dean, each said results of the Nov. 3 midterm elections may also play a factor in where rates now go.
Gilbert said that the outcome may also be “pivotal for government policy and may significantly affect mortgage rates by January 2027.” Sylwester said that interest rates often come down with divided government, locking in the status quo, “as neither side can launch huge initiatives. This locks in the status quo, adding more certainty.”
Media availability
Kevin Sylwester, professor of economics and director of the SIU School of Analytics, Finance, and Economics, can be contacted at ksylwest@siu.edu. Scott Gilbert, associate professor and interim associate dean of Business Analytics, can be contacted at gilberts@siu.edu. Both are available to discuss the current high mortgage rates, the growth trend over time, and factors that determine where rates may be forecasted to go. They can also discuss how this is affecting home buyers, sellers, refinancers, new home construction, and the overall economy.
Multiple factors in determining mortgage interest rates?
The Iran War, increasing government debt and inflation are among the larger factors contributing to the mortgage rates, in addition to an individual’s credit score, income and the term of the proposed loan. For example, Forbes said that mortgage rates have risen steadily — a 1.5% increase — since the start of the Iran war in late February 2026.
According to MarketWatch, contracts for pending home purchases — transactions under contract but not yet closed — in September 2026 were at their lowest level since 2001, the year the National Association of Realtors began tracking that data.
The impact is not limited to home buyers. Those hoping to sell or refinance a home are also affected. All of this has a larger impact on the economy, according to Gilbert.
“Higher mortgage interest rates discourage new home buying and construction, and as these are an important part of overall or aggregate demand, they tend to lower aggregate demand, jobs, and average income,” he said.
Sylwester said one of the biggest factors is inflation and fears of inflation. Lenders need to be compensated and protected if inflation occurs over the course of a long-term loan of any kind, so that “when that money is returned to me, I can still buy more than what I gave you initially.”
Another factor is increasing government deficits and rising debt, which creates borrowing demands to finance those deficits and puts more pressure on borrowing funds in the economy. “When the demand for shoes goes up, the price of shoes goes up. When the demand for pizza goes up, the price of pizza goes up. When the demand for borrowing goes up, the price of that borrowing, which is interest rates, increases,” Sylwester said.
Remembering lower rates
Sylwester said one reason current interest rates are noticeably higher is the memory of low interest rates. After the 2008 great recession rates had fallen to near 3% by 2021 because the Federal Reserve had “dumped more and more and more money into the economy,” Sylwester said.
He added there was a time when 7% mortgage interest rates were considered low, with rates were as high and even above 15% in the 1980s.
“For 30 years, from before 1970 to 2000, 7% was a really low mortgage interest rate,” Sylwester said.
Where will mortgage interest rates go from here?
Most professional economic forecasters predict that there will be “sustained inflation in coming months,” Gilbert said. “In turn, the Federal Reserve's announced policy is to keep its policy rates high, which corresponds to anticipated continuation of high mortgage rates near-term.”
According to Forbes, around 70% of mortgage executives at a recent mortgage banking summit predicted that rates would either stay the same or increase.
Sylwester said there is no genie in a bottle that can tell us where they may go from here. But he doubts interest rates returning to the levels of 10 years ago.
“A lot of people thought in 2010, when they were down to 5%, ‘Oh, they can't go lower,’ and they did. And then in 2016, when they were getting to 4%, ‘Oh, they can't go any lower,’ and they did. So I will add that caveat, but it's hard to believe that we're going back to 3-4%,” Sylwester said.