Gregory D. DeYong is an SIU Carbondale associate professor of operations management. (Photo by Russell Bailey)
April 08, 2025
Tariffs could affect supply chains, SIU professor says
CARBONDALE, Ill. — President Donald Trump’s tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% may have some very significant impacts on various manufacturing and supply chain management firms, said Gregory D. DeYong, a Southern Illinois University Carbondale associate professor of operations management, meaning both availability and pricing on a variety of products may be an up and down seesaw as talks go on.
“While the broad-based tariffs on imports to the U.S. have clearly had an unsettling effect on global stock markets,” he said, “we may experience some significant underlying effects as well, particularly on supply chain management. Supply chain activities don’t take place in a vacuum.”
DeYong said global trade negotiations are typically “both time-consuming and fickle,” so he anticipates that at least in the near future, consumers and businesses will experience volatility.
“In some cases, trade negotiations will likely lead to settlements which reduce tariffs on both sides, while in other cases, there will be escalations of trade conflicts when negotiations break down,” DeYong said.
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Gregory D. DeYong, associate professor of operations management at SIU Carbondale, can be reached at gdeyong@siu.edu.
Some will win
“There will be some definite winners if the new tariff levels are maintained for a long period of time,” DeYong said. “Domestic logistics providers such as trucking and rail companies will likely see strong opportunities as domestic manufacturers will require higher levels of inbound and outbound freight. For instance, shipments of raw materials that previously originated outside the U.S. will be more heavily sourced from within the country, and shipments that used to terminate outside the U.S. – exports – will be more likely to have U.S. destinations as domestic products become more competitive.”
He noted that domestic manufacturers of “Made in USA” items, such as apparel and electronics, will see strong gains from tariffs on foreign goods. Other “winners” will include supply chains that are already compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) because these goods are exempt from increased tariffs on Mexico and Canada. He said many firms that are technically USMCA-compliant have not actually completed the paperwork to qualify for this exemption, but they are expected to do so quickly now.
Domestic energy production and consumers of energy are also expected to benefit. Gasoline prices have dropped 11% since last week while crude oil is down 15%.
“This is a windfall for energy-intensive industries and for petrochemical producers,” DeYong said.
Some will lose
The news is far from all good though, he’s quick to add, pointing out that there will also be some “clear losers.” Offshore producers of apparel, electronics and pharmaceuticals, to name a few, will see significant tariff effects unless they can qualify for USMCA-compliance.
“The rapid growth of imported pharmaceuticals in the U.S. will affect consumers,” DeYong said, noting that one-third of all sales were imported in 2024, up from one-fifth in 2013. He said imported automobiles that are not USMCA-compliant also “face strong headwinds.”
Retailers that rely heavily upon imported goods and global logistics providers will also struggle if the current tariff situation remains unchanged, according to DeYong. Many small online retailers such as the independent resellers on Amazon and Shopify had imported their goods in small quantities, qualifying for the “de minimis exemption” and thus avoiding tariffs, but they would no longer qualify for the exemption, meaning higher costs for them, which they would pass along to consumers.
Ups and downs
“Many others, including individual consumers, will face more of a mixed outcome,” DeYong said. “While we are already seeing a drop in wholesale gasoline and energy costs, domestic manufacturers, and those who are USMCA-compliant, will likely see an increase in domestic demand as their products become more price-competitive. But at the same time, those same domestic manufacturers will see lower demand for their exported goods.”
And he said American farmers will be some of the first to experience immediate negative impacts as the demand for U.S. agricultural products weakens due to the tariffs as they have experienced before.
“U.S. agricultural exports face some of the highest tariffs of all products – the U.S. Dairy Export Council cites Canadian tariffs of 270% after a certain number of sales as a particularly egregious example – so U.S. farmers stand to gain significantly if the tariff negotiations result in lowering barriers globally,” DeYong said.
Maintaining a clear view of not only the immediate future but also of the longer-term effects and scenarios is the key to making the best possible supply chain decisions, especially as the situation is fluid and evolving, DeYong said. He encourages consumers and businesses to take a careful “wait-and-see” attitude, while staying closely tuned to tariff developments and global trade negotiations.
“Be aware and informed so you can make the wisest decisions possible for your future,” DeYong said.
DeYong has personal experience as well as professional knowledge in supply chain management. Before becoming an SIU faculty member, he worked as an import/export manager where he was responsible for about $100 million in products annually. DeYong is currently working to establish a Center for Supply Chain Management and Logistics within SIU’s College of Business and Analytics.