Public domain image by Vera Kratochvil
October 31, 2024
Down to the wire: SIU political experts expect few changes in style ahead of election
CARBONDALE, Ill. — Political experts at Southern Illinois University Carbondale predict voters may not see many changes in how Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump adjust their tactics as the nation’s 2024 presidential campaign winds down in the waning hours toward Election Day, on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
John Shaw, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, said Trump, the Republican nominee, “has clearly decided not to moderate his message or reach out to the middle.” Harris, the Democratic nominee, “would be wise to end her campaign with a hopeful message, urging the turning of the page and national renewal.”
John Jackson, a visiting professor at the institute, said both campaigns have “the same strategic objectives at this point — motivating and mobilizing their bases to turn out at high levels and appeal to a wider audience of undecided and more moderate voters, along with attracting crossover voters.”
“Harris has constantly tried to achieve both objectives,” Jackson said. “Trump has only concentrated on appealing to the base as demonstrated at the Madison Square Garden event Sunday. That could be a major mistake.”
Kenneth Mulligan, an associate professor of political science, predicts that the pointed attacks by each candidate toward their opponent could become even sharper.
“Before any close election, probably the most predictable thing is that the attacks get stronger – negativity goes up,” he said. “Most people don’t like it. If that’s you, now is a good time to cast your ballot and tune out until the dust settles.”
Media availability
SIU Carbondale’s political experts will be available to provide both pre- and post-election analysis.
John Jackson is a visiting professor at SIU Carbondale’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute and has more than four decades of political expertise and research in presidential politics, campaigns and elections. He can be reached at 618-303-1240 or jsjacson@siu.edu.
Kenneth Mulligan is an associate professor of political science in SIU’s School of Anthropology, Political Science and Sociology. His research and teaching involve American political behavior, media and politics, and public opinion. He can be reached at 618-201-9634 and kmulliga@siu.edu.
John Shaw, director, Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, spent 26 years in Washington, D.C., covering Congress and economic issues for Market News International before his arrival at SIU Carbondale in 2018. He has been a guest on the PBS NewsHour and C-SPAN. He can be reached at 618-453-4009 or john.shaw@siu.edu.
A question of style
Shaw said he expects Harris will handily win the popular vote but that the presidency will be decided “by just thousands of votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.”
Trump “is tripling down on his MAGA base, apparently unconcerned that rallies such as the one he recently held at Madison Square Garden concern — and even terrify — millions of voters,” Shaw said.
Should Harris end her campaign with a message of hope, “this could persuade millions of young voters and suburban Republicans, especially Republican women, to vote for her,” he said. “If it all possible, Harris should deploy Michelle Obama to every swing state. There is simply no one in American politics who is better skilled at dismantling Donald Trump than Mrs. Obama.”
A divided nation
Jackson notes the nation is profoundly divided and “polarization is deeper than in earlier eras because our divisions are now coterminous with party identity, whereas in the past they cut across party divisions — liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats.”
Compromise, Jackson said, then becomes more difficult. He expects the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representative races to be “very close,” and neither Trump nor Harris potentially having strong coattails for the respective House and Senate candidates because their own race is close.
“The majority will depend on the fate of a small number of incumbents who are facing strong challengers. This could easily produce a divided government facing the next president,” Jackson said.
Mulligan said the presidential race is as close to being tied “as we have seen in the modern era.”
“The country has been roughly evenly divided between the two parties for nearly a quarter century,” he said. “Republicans will likely gain a majority in the Senate; the House could go either way. If one of the presidential candidates beats expectations, he or she could have coattails that help elect down-ballot candidates.”
Shaw believes that Democrats are poised to win the House narrowly but lose control of the U.S. Senate.