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September 06, 2024
SIU political, debate experts: Expect Harris to be formidable for Trump in presidential debate
CARBONDALE, Ill. — Political and debate experts at Southern Illinois University Carbondale see the Tuesday, Sept. 10, presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as an opportunity for Harris to further introduce herself to the nation. And they predict Harris is a more formidable debate opponent for Trump than previous challengers.
“Harris is quick on her feet and presents a lethal blend of charm and toughness,” said John Shaw, Paul Simon Public Policy Institute director. “She is also very disciplined and is not likely to get trapped into petty exchanges with Trump. She will probably have a handful of zingers ready that relate to Trump’s status as both the presidential nominee of a major political party and a convicted felon. She is likely to refer to Trump as small, unserious and petty — as a grifter, a loser, even a clown. She will present herself as the candidate for the future and Trump as the candidate for a dark and troubled past.”
Todd Graham, professor of debate in the School of Communication Studies and a regular contributor and debate expert for CNN and CNN Opinion, said it is important for both candidates to seek what undecided voters are looking for and “focus on those important issues.” For Trump, that would mean emphasizing inflation and immigration; for Harris, “progress and change toward better.”
John Jackson, a visiting professor with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, has been watching presidential debates since the 1960 debate between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. Jackson believes none have been as “consequential” since the June 27 debate between Trump and President Joe Biden — a performance that derailed Biden’s quest for a second term and placed Harris as the Democratic Party’s nominee.
“The spotlight and the pressure will be on Harris and how she performs against Trump,” Jackson said. “He will simply be the same Trump we have all become very familiar with since he declared his candidacy the first time in 2015. His dedicated base will continue to support him no matter what he says or does in this debate. The crucial question is: How will the independents and the undecided voters react to his performance?”
Harris “needs to make her own case and not be distracted or intimidated by Trump’s bluster.” Doing so with confidence will mean Harris continues, or even boosts, the momentum she has, Jackson said.
Kenneth Mulligan, an associate professor of political science in the School of Anthropology, Political Science and Sociology, said this debate is different for voters.
"Usually, debates matter little, if at all, because most voters have already made up their minds,” he said. “However, given that some voters are still being introduced to Harris, as well as her and Trump’s histories of spotty previous debate performances, and especially, the sheer closeness of this election, this could easily be the most consequential presidential debate in a generation.”
Media availability
Todd Graham is professor of debate in SIU’s School of Communication Studies, where his debate teams have won five national titles. He has been analyzing presidential debates for more than 20 years and is a regular contributor and regular debate expert for CNN and CNN Opinion. He can be reached at 314-495-7278 or at tgraham@siu.edu or toddgraham101@gmail.com.
John Jackson is a visiting professor at SIU Carbondale’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute and has more than four decades of political expertise and research in presidential politics, campaigns and elections. He can be reached at 618-303-1240 or jsjacson@siu.edu.
Kenneth Mulligan is an associate professor of political science in SIU’s School of Anthropology, Political Science and Sociology. His research and teaching involve American political behavior, media and politics, and public opinion. He can be reached at 618-201-9634 and kmulliga@siu.edu.
John Shaw, director, Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, spent 26 years in Washington, D.C., covering Congress and economic issues for Market News International before his arrival at SIU Carbondale in 2018. He has been a guest on the PBS NewsHour and C-SPAN. He can be reached at 618-453-4009 or john.shaw@siu.edu.
“See what sticks”
Graham said Trump “almost never answers the questions” and prefers to speak in “bombastic hyperbole” where he makes claims “but rarely backs them up with evidence, and if he does, the data never has a warrant connecting his data to his claim or conclusion.” Rarely staying on topic, Trump’s “go-to strategy” is the “Gish gallop.”
“He’s going to make a ton of assertions during his speaking time and not many of them will be related to the question,” Graham said. “It’s the ‘throw a bunch of stuff against the wall and see what sticks’ method of arguing.”
Trump walks a fine line when it comes to being assertive or appearing as mean, demeaning and aggressive, Graham said. For Harris, she needs to avoid Trump’s Gish gallop attacks and “excessive anger” if she’s interrupted. She needs to avoid “answering all of his attacks at the expense of your own answer to the question.”
But Graham said Harris’ previous debates have been a “mixed bag,” with only one one-on-one debate against former Vice President Mike Pence in 2020, where her laid back demeanor worked well. Harris has a chance to do something neither 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton nor Biden could do, challenge Trump on stage and put him “on the defensive with the addition of humor and assertiveness,” he said.
“On the other hand, there's a reason Clinton and Biden didn’t go there,” he said. “The fine line between being clever and biting and being rude isn’t so clear as one would hope. This technique could backfire if not properly practiced and coached. This would be the high risk but high reward choice for Harris.”
Shaw agreed that Trump will look for ways to “rattle Harris, to shake her confidence, to lose her poise and get her to snap.
“Trump will link Harris to Biden and allege a failed Biden-Harris administration that is both incompetent and radical,” he said.
Debate stage
Shaw predicts the debate will not be one for “policy wonks” or require viewers watch “with calculators or spreadsheets.”
“This will be a debate about broad themes, punches and counter punches. It will not be pretty. It will be interesting,” Shaw said.
Graham added that he will write a book someday on moderating debates. His advice for moderators is to “improve immediately,” which includes fact checking and making candidates answer questions.
“If I could have any other job, it would be to train debate moderators,” Graham said. “They are the reasons the debates are so bad.”